نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مجتبی نوری ¹
• روح اله رضائی ²
• محمدکاظم رحیمی ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری ترویج کشاورزی پایدار دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

² استاد گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعه روستایی دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

³ مدیر جهاد کشاورزی شهرستان زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به روند نزولی بارندگی و پدیدۀ کم‌آبی طی دهه‌های گذشته در استان زنجان که به چالش‌هایی مانند تخلیۀ برخی روستاها و کاهش تاب‌آوری جوامع محلی انجامیده است و با در نظر گرفتن تهدید جدی این بحران برای امنیت معیشتی کشاورزان و امنیت غذایی منطقه، این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و واکاوی پیشران‌های کلیدی اثرگذار بر توسعه ظرفیت تاب‌آوری کشاورزان استان زنجان در مواجهه با کم‌آبی به­اجرا درآمد. برای این منظور، از رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی شامل عدم قطعیت بحرانی و تحلیل اثرهای متقاطع و قضاوت 18 متخصص منتخب استان استفاده گردید. به منظور کسب اطمینان از اعتبار علمی تحقیق، روایی عوامل از طریق مرور جامع ادبیات و اعتبارسنجی توسط پانل متخصصان (با نمونه‌گیری هدفمند و دستیابی به اشباع نظری) تأمین شد. پایایی تحلیل ساختاری با آزمون پایداری MICMAC سنجیده شد که نتایج به­دست آمده پایداری کامل تحلیل و قابلیت اطمینان بالای یافته‌ها را تأیید کرد. پس از ارزیابی اهمیت و عدم قطعیت عوامل توسط خبرگان، که نشان داد عامل «پذیرش عمق بحران» با میانگین رتبۀ 18/42 بالاترین اهمیت و عامل «تفکر سیستمی در حکمرانی» با میانگین رتبه 18/49 بالاترین عدم قطعیت را دارند، تحلیل نهایی MICMAC روی 7 عامل کلیدی (با اهمیت و عدم قطعیت بالا) اجرا شد. بر اساس نتایج این تحلیل ساختاری مبتنی بر داده‌های خبرگان، سه عامل پذیرش عمق بحران، تفکر سیستمی در حکمرانی و کنترل برداشت‌های مازاد به عنوان پیشران‌های کلیدی محوری شناسایی شدند؛ تحلیل‌ها نشان داد این عوامل نقشی حیاتی و پیوندی (اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری بالا) در سیستم تاب‌آوری آیندۀ استان زنجان دارند. یافتۀ کلیدی این تحلیل، لزوم توجه و اقدام یکپارچه روی این سه پیشرانِ به‌هم‌پیوسته است برای آنکه تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر بحران آب به شکلی پایدار افزایش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• تاب‌آوری
• بحران آب
• تحلیل اثرات متقابل
• آینده‌پژوهی
• استان زنجان

موضوعات

• منابع و مصارف آب

عنوان مقاله [English]

Exploring Key Drivers Affecting the Development of Farmers' Resilience Capacity in the Face of Water Scarcity

نویسندگان [English]

• mojtaba noori ¹
• Rouhallah Rezaei ²
• mohammad kazem rahimi ³

¹ 1- PhD student in Sustainable Agriculture Promotion, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

² Professor of Extension, Communication and Rural Development Department of Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran.

³ Director of the Agricultural Jihad in Zanjan City, Zanjan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Introduction
       Water scarcity can result from drought, a decline in water resources, or a combination of both factors. Under these conditions, the term "crisis" aptly describes the situation. The global water crisis is among the most significant threats facing humanity; it is estimated that approximately 3.5 billion people will experience water shortages by 2025, with global water demand projected to rise by 30% by 2050. To mitigate farmers' vulnerability and mitigate the impacts of water scarcity, the concept of resilience has gained attention. Resilience reflects the capacity of an individual or system to adapt effectively during critical situations and identify rational strategies to overcome crises. Today, resilience serves not only as a tool for crisis management but also as a preventive and predictive measure aimed at maintaining orderly continuity under various conditions. Notably, the agricultural sector faces earlier and more severe consequences of water scarcity than other sectors due to the direct threats it poses to farmers' livelihoods and national food security. Given this critical importance, the objective of this study is to identify and analyze key drivers that influence the development of farmers' resilience against water scarcity crises.
 Materials and Methods
Given that "capacity development" pertains to future-oriented activities, this study utilized the critical uncertainty approach and the cross-effects matrix, common methods in futures research, to identify relevant drivers. Initially, a comprehensive review of existing literature was conducted to identify significant issues related to resilience against water scarcity. After summarizing, consolidating, and eliminating redundant or overlapping concepts, these factors were compiled into questionnaires and presented during semi-structured interviews with experts, specialists, and key informants.
Participants rated each factor based on "importance" and "uncertainty" for the horizon of 1413 using a five-point Likert scale (very low, low, medium, high, very high). Subsequently, experts weighted and ranked these factors according to their perceived importance and uncertainty. Interaction analysis was then performed to examine interrelationships among key factors, assessing their mutual influence. This method, implemented through specialized futures research software MICMAC, is particularly suitable for analyzing variable interdependencies and compiling expert insights. MICMAC employs a matrix-based approach to elucidate the relationships among influential factors in qualitative research.
  Results
Using the critical uncertainty approach, factors identified as both highly important and uncertain were deemed key drivers. Average weights assigned to each factor were plotted onto an importance-uncertainty matrix, allowing the selection of critical factors. Identified factors included: (1) reforming policies that incentivize the production of water-intensive crops; (2) acceptance of the severity of the crisis within the agricultural community; (3) systemic governance of agricultural water resources; (4) promoting optimal water-use practices among farmers; (5) controlling excessive agricultural water extraction; (6) reforming regional cropping patterns; and (7) promoting sustainable livelihoods independent of water-intensive practices.
Results demonstrated that policy reforms targeting water-intensive crop production, enhancing water-use culture among farmers, and adjusting regional cropping patterns significantly impact farmers' resilience to water scarcity. Additionally, key-dependent factors highly influenced by others were the agricultural community's acknowledgement of crisis severity, systemic governance of agricultural water resources, and regulation of excessive water withdrawals.
 Conclusions
This study identified three primary drivers crucial to developing farmers' resilience in Zanjan province: recognizing the severity of the water crisis, adopting systemic governance approaches to water resources, and regulating excessive agricultural water withdrawals. These drivers are interconnected, implying that changes in one factor will inevitably influence the others. Effective management of these drivers is thus essential for advancing resilience among farmers facing water scarcity. Given the critical status of water resources in Zanjan, where five out of seven plains are classified as prohibited or critical zones, provincial administrators and planners, along with the broader agricultural community, must acknowledge the depth of this crisis. By adopting systemic approaches and managing water consumption responsibly, significant strides can be made towards building resilience to the ongoing water scarcity crisis.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Resilience
• Water Crisis
• Zanjan Province
• Interaction Analysis
• Futures Studies